On Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions of Expectations

Using data from a large survey of American households, we compare density forecasts elicited with bins- and scenarios-based questions. We show that inflation density forecasts are sensitive to the survey question designs used to elicit them. The within-person discrepancy is smaller, but still discernible, for unemployment expectations. The discrepancy in responses is systematically related to sociodemographic characteristics of respondents. The differences shed light on the significance of priming in bins-based inflation density forecasts.

Recommended citation: Boctor, Valerie R., Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Michael Weber. On Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions of Expectations. No. w32406. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2024.
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